Is the Income Property Business Model Outdated?
Spending Habits
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced in August that the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the second quarter of 2008, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes, was $34.6 billion, an increase of 2.9 percent from the first quarter of 2008. Total retail sales for the second quarter of 2008 were estimated at $1,034.8 billion, an increase of 0.9 percent from the first quarter of 2008. The second quarter 2008 e-commerce estimate increased 9.5 percent from the second quarter of 2007 while total retail sales increased 2.5 percent in the same period. E-commerce sales in the second quarter of 2008 accounted for 3.3 percent of total sales, up from zero several years ago and increasing.
Change Summary
The following changes are recent, and are increasing at an accelerated rate.
- Over 60 million have changed their physical work habits.
- Americans are traveling 30 billion fewer vehicle miles.
- E-commerce sales are now $200 billion of the $5 trillion plus retail sales.
Results
Residential
Home and apartment construction nationwide fell in July to its lowest level in more than 17 years. The US Commerce department said builders broke ground on 965,000 housing units on an annualized basis, down from a pace of 1.08 million in June and the weakest showing since March 1991. However, July’s performance was slightly better than the 950,000 units analysts expected.
Retail
The International Council of Shopping Centers projects 2008 store closings could reach 5,770 stores in the U.S. in 2008, the largest number of closings since 2004. Following is a list of retail closings from Joel Skousen’s World Affair’s Brief:
- Ann Taylor is closing 117 stores.
- Eddie Bauer to close more stores after having already closed 27 shops in the first quarter.
- Cache, the women’s retailer announced that it is closing 20 to 23 stores this year.
- Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug, and Catherines are closing 150 stores nationwide.
- J. Talbots announced earlier that it is shuttering all 78 of its kids and men’s stores. Now the company says it will close another 22 under-performing stores.
- Gap Inc. is closing 85 stores - In addition to its namesake chain, Gap also owns Old Navy and Banana Republic.
- Foot Locker will close 140 stores.
- Wickes, a 37-year-old retailer, filed for bankruptcy protection last month, and is closing all stores.
- Levitz, the furniture retailer, is going out of business.
- The owner of Zales and Piercing Pagoda said it plans to close 82 stores.
- Disney Store’s new owner has reserved the right to close 98 stores.
- Home Depot. Nearly 7+ months after its chief executive said there were no plans to cut the number of its core retail stores, The Home Depot announced Thursday that it is shuttering 15 of them. It is the first time the world’s largest home improvement store chain has ever closed a flagship store (Atlanta) for performance reasons.
- CompUSA is closing 128 stores.
- Macy’s will close 9 stores.
- Movie Gallery - 160 stores as part of a reorganization plan to exit bankruptcy
- Pep Boys will close 33 stores.
- Sprint Nextel - closing 125 retail locations. Amid the loss of 639,000 paying customers in the fourth quarter, Sprint will be cutting a total of 6.7% of its work force (following the 5,000 layoffs last year) and 8% of company-owned brick-and-mortar stores.
- J. C. Penney, Lowe’s and Office Depot are scaling back.
- Ethan Allen Interiors announced plans to close 12 of 300+ stores in an effort to cut costs.
- Pacific Sunwear will close its 154 Demo stores.
- Sharper Image: The company recently filed for bankruptcy protection. 90 of its 184 stores are closing.
- Bombay Company: The company unveiled plans to close all 384 U.S.-based Bombay Company stores.
- KB Toys posted a list of 356 stores that it is closing around the United States as part of its bankruptcy.
- Dillard’s said it will continue to focus on closing under-performing stores, and reducing expenses.


Good news for i-net retailers, not so good for the rest. With regard to the store closings, it would be enormously more meaningful to know not just the number of planned closings, but what percentage of total stores the closings represent. But perhaps your source Affair’s Brief” did not contain that information.
September 10th, 2008 at 7:00 pmI don’t know if a simple economic downturn, a normal part of the economic cycle, is a reason to abandon, for instance, the acquisition of retail property. I do think that prudent due diligence is critical, and that there is a tremendous amount of distress among retailers — distress that will only grow exponentially after what is likely to be a very tepid holiday shopping season. It is a time to be patient and to buy investment property prudently and with an eye to value creation opportunities.
September 28th, 2008 at 6:22 am